Economic forecasting or climate forecasting: which is worse?

It’s hard to tell which “science” is more often wrong: economic forecasting or climate forecasting. Predict, 165,000 – get 304,000. Epic fail.

Every month economists make forecasts about all sorts of things. They use complex computer models filled with invented algorithms into which they feed observations of market movements and any other data they can lay their hands on. At the end the spit out predictions. Which are, pretty regularly, epic fails. Just because the outcome is better than expectation, missing with a prediction by 100% makes that original prediction completely useless and anyone who took action based on that prediction looks like a fool.

The claims made by computer modelling climate “scientists” are usually set much further into the future. So when they fail so epically, the “scientists” have usually spent the intervening years massaging their models to hide how much of an epic fail their entire branch of “science” has been.

The only thing worse than either climate forecasting or economic forecasting, is making economic policies based on climate forecasts.

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MAGA hat kids are being hit with Pallywood demonisation

If you’ve followed my work for years you’ll know what Pallywood is but I’ll explain for newbies. I’ve been watching the demonisation of Israel and Israelis for defending ourselves in the main stream media (M5M) for decades. Pallywood is the joining of “Palestine” and “Hollywood” to denote faked video (or images) or any narrative (aka lies) created to destroy Israel. Prof Landes coined the term Pallywood when looking at the completely fake footage of Mohammed Al Durah.

What I woke up to this morning on my Twitter feed is a classic example of Pallywood applied to MAGA hat wearing, Trump supporting, Catholic school kids. Because I no longer pay any attention to main stream media sources on anything, I usually have to look back up the chain to find out what the M5M are saying.

Imagine my surprise when it lead back to this story in the Washington Post.

There are a few ways to look at this story, this version is framed for people especially in America, watching the demonisation of Trump but who haven’t paid so much attention to Israel. I’ll tell the Israel focused version elsewhere. The UK version would look through the lens of the demonisation of Brexit, Brexiteers and Tommy Robinson.

A viral video of a group of Kentucky teens in “Make America Great Again” hats taunting a Native American veteran on Friday has heaped fuel on a long-running, intense argument among abortion opponents as to whether the close affiliation of many antiabortion leaders with President Trump since he took office has led to moral decay that harms the movement.

The video, which began to spread Saturday morning, showed a throng of young, mostly white teenage boys, several wearing the caps, closely surrounding a 64-year-old man who was beating a drum as part of the Indigenous Peoples March happening near the Lincoln Memorial on Friday.

The story is that this older, Native American man was surrounded and intimidated by a gang of MAGA hat wearing kids. All over Twitter right now the far-left, blue checkmark terrified hate mob is looking for these kids. They’re hunting down their high school year bookspetitioningto get them expelled from their Catholic school, petitioning to have the principal of the school fired. The full video is here, that link jumps in quite a way along where the people surrounding the MAGA kids are throwing homophobic slurs at the President (that’s not in the Washington Post article). Here’s a good, detailed, run down of what the M5M are missing at InformationLiberation.

I am inherently suspicious of sites like Washington Post or CNN because I’ve been watching them defame Israel for more than a decade: especially taking a video, cutting out context and presenting their favourite narratives. And here’s the bias: Catholic, white kids who’ve just attended a huge anti-abortion march and are wearing MAGA hats are in the same class for mainstream sites as “Israeli settlers” and here we can see exactly the same demonization tactics used.

As Mike Cernovich points out in the video embedded below, the crowd from which this Native American activist emerges seems to have a come from the Black Hebrew Israelite Movement which are a deeply racist, Black supremacist movement. Even the SPLC condemn them. Their role is not mentioned in the Washington Post of course.

The Native American man banging the drum: who is he? Has he done this before? Any background on him? No. Of course this is a pattern of behavior for Nathan Phillips, just like the behaviour of the girl Israellycool dubbed “Shirley Temper” – Ahed Tamimi whose exploits I’ve watched for years. If you’re reading pro-Israel sites regularly you’ll recognize any story she appears in and be suspicious, but if you just relied on the New York Times, Washington Post, CNN and all the rest, you’ve probably fallen for the decades of lies. The following video started her career. It has 25m views:

This girl has had an illustrious career of provocation and taunting, last year she succeeded in getting arrested, tried and sentenced to a short stay in Israeli prison. All of the same sites currently demonising Catholic kids in America were the ones praising this girl. This is the far-left’s creation of oppressed and oppressor.

Mike Cernovich’s video, if you don’t want to watch the long raw stream from the event, highlights the most important points that debunk the mainstream narrative. Mike is in the process of releasing a film, Hoaxed, of which I’ve seen a pre-release. It doesn’t specifically talk about Israel but every trick and distortion method he shows in his film was invented, tested and deployed to demonize Israel since (largely) 1967.

What was done to these boys relies on the central trick pulled by the anti-Israel media. Framing an event so tightly in either time, space or both as to cut all context and invert the position of aggressor and victim. This was pointed out so eloquently by Matti Friedman: to demonize Israel as the Goliath of the Middle East oppressing the poor Palestinians, you have to zoom in really tight in geography and ignore multiple hostile nations and 100 million more Arabs surrounding Israel. In order to slander Israeli acts of self defense, you frame the timescale to ignore the attack upon Israel that proceed acts of self defense.

It’s so obvious when it’s pointed out but when you’re stuck in the world of the M5M, it is very hard to de-program yourself. The chink comes when the media go after a target you know more about than they do and you get to see how they lie and distort just about anything. Unless, of course, you share their far-left, cultural marxist world view.

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Special shout out to Nick Monroe, quite of few of his tweets are linked to above.

Dan Bongino is on fire today

Podcasts high on my must listen list: Dan Bongino.

And today’s show is simply breathtaking. It might be hard to follow if you’re not up to date on the attempted coup against Trump, but Dan does the best job possible to explain this.

Here’s a little taster.

Could this be the greatest scandal in US history?