{"id":460,"date":"2019-02-03T09:36:04","date_gmt":"2019-02-03T07:36:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/brianoflondon.me\/?p=460"},"modified":"2019-02-03T10:31:21","modified_gmt":"2019-02-03T08:31:21","slug":"economic-forecasting-or-climate-forecasting-which-is-worse","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/brianoflondon.me\/2019\/02\/economic-forecasting-or-climate-forecasting-which-is-worse\/","title":{"rendered":"Economic forecasting or climate forecasting: which is worse?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

It\u2019s hard to tell which \u201cscience\u201d is more often wrong: economic forecasting or climate forecasting. Predict, 165,000 – get 304,000. Epic fail.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Every month economists make forecasts about all sorts of things. They use complex computer models filled with invented algorithms into which they feed observations of market movements and any other data they can lay their hands on. At the end the spit out predictions. Which are, pretty regularly, epic fails. Just because the outcome is better than expectation, missing with a prediction by 100% makes that original prediction completely useless and anyone who took action based on that prediction looks like a fool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The claims made by computer modelling climate \u201cscientists\u201d are usually set much further into the future. So when they fail so epically, the \u201cscientists\u201d have usually spent the intervening years massaging their models to hide how much of an epic fail their entire branch of \u201cscience\u201d has been.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The only thing worse than either climate forecasting or economic forecasting, is making economic policies based on climate forecasts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

It\u2019s hard to tell which \u201cscience\u201d is more often wrong: economic forecasting or climate forecasting. https:\/\/t.co\/jKOynGqNqT<\/a><\/p>— Dr Brian of London \ud83c\uddee\ud83c\uddf1 (@brianoflondon) February 2, 2019<\/a><\/blockquote>